And so we meet again...

With some sadness I've neglected the care and feeding of this blog, but sometimes you need a break from these things (anyone who's written a blog for 2+ years will surely nod their head in agreement), plus, I've just been busy.

Many people have asked me to comment about the next-gen consoles, and frankly I have nothing enlightened to say.  I've yet to touch the controller of any of them.  I can't find a X360 to buy in stores, and we have yet to get a development machine sent from Microsoft even though Prey is being developed for their system.

My prediction for this new round of consoles is that the X360 and PS3 will wind up about equal in terms of sales, with Nintendo's Revolution coming in a distant third--perhaps this will be the last console from this company.  The X360 gains ground on the PS3 this cycle by virtue of two points:  [1] Xbox Live! rocks (from what I've heard -- again, no first-hand experience).  [2] The X360 has a big head start over the PS3.  Finally, I cannot comment on the Revolution's controller until I try one.

More:

o  E3 decides to focus on games!   It's about time.  If we're going to be taken seriously as a maturing industry, it only makes sense to drop the soft porn geek fantasies and make games the thing.  Two thoughts:  One, getting around E3 has been a nightmare if you ever needed to pass a booth with scantily clad booth dancing dolls drawing a feverish crowd of camera flashing boys.  Two, and I love this one the most... Games with no game will finally have no crowd.

o  On our site, every week until release, we'll have a developer diary on our coming game, Prey.  And just for fun, too, we started a weekly series that we're calling the Apogee Legacy Interviews, in which we are posting interviews with many of the key developers who were instrumental in our early success, going back to 1990.  We hope to have at least 30 interviews this year

o  I stopped playing WoW seven months ago, after hitting level 60.  I am a solo player, and I do not like the hassles of grouping and re-raiding the same areas over and over.  The game was only interesting to me when there was the promise of new areas to explore, new sights to behold.  I'll probably jump back in when the expansion pack comes out (Burning Crusade) that introduces new areas and pushes the level cap up to 70.

UPDATE:  Meant to post this yesterday:  I now have in my grubby hands a signed agreement that will result in us getting Xbox 360 dev boxes.  All is good.  And I had no idea that this little blog post would get so much news coverage, even in Europe (based on incoming links from news sites).  And while I'm here, a fun link for everyone, showing a recent consumer video/PC game market breakdown in the United Kingdom.

Comments

[Nabil]

I'm not sure I agree with your market assessment. More and more in forums and the blogosphere, I'm seeing frustration and disappointment with Microsoft and Sony's offerings, citing consumer cost, lack of "It" games, and delays/shortages. While the graphics have improved, the gameplay is for all intents and purposes the same, which makes it hard for a lot of consumers to justify the $400-500 price tag.

Conversely, I'm seeing a lot of people genuinely excited about the Revolution, because it offers them something actually new in terms of gameplay, plus at least rumor of a lower price point (the highest rumored price I've seen is $300, with usual estimates being $200-250... compare that with an average estimated price of a PS3 at $500 with rumors going as high as $700).

Put simply, shinier graphics isn't enough to justify the additional cost of the new console. As CounterStrike showed, if the graphics are "good enough", the focus returns to where it should be: the gameplay. Another example of where gameplay was more important than graphics: DS vs PSP.

Good to see you back! You post, I'll read. :)

[Marek]

Sad to see you don't recognize the sales potential of the Revolution, especially considering how much you know about differentiation and other marketing principles. What are your thoughts on the "blue ocean" approach Reggie Fils-Aimes has mentioned a couple of times?

I wonder why many of the western FPS makers seem to be so skeptical of the Revolution (e.g. Epic Games) when the interface would work especially great with FPSes, and they should be pioneering the genre on that platform. I guess if they don't, Ubisoft will.

[YicklePigeon]

Ok first point: E3 and the newly formed rules and regulations.

I actually agree, although I did enjoy looking at Joe Siegler's E3 photo collections and various other website collections of booth babe pictures. Guess all those models will be out of work eh?

On a more serious note, perhaps general E3 coverage will be something 8 year olds and above could read/watch without much in the way of objections.

---

Moving onto the second point: Consoles.

I've never touched any of the three mentioned and frankly, I don't care to - if the Revolution crashes and burns (or otherwise) doesn't effect me so *shrugs*.

---

Final point raised: I must admit, I didn't play WoW for very long, but long enough for me to become somewhat bored. I became bored of City of Heroes too, I'd gotten to about level 27 with my main character...but I'd pretty much been to all the areas (thanks to having friends with high level characters to team up with) and the stories aren't *that* entertaining either.

The problem, I find (at least with CoH), is that there doesn't seem to be any CoHesion (pun intended) for all the various missions - I don't feel as if I'm part of this great war against evil but rather this game character killing off every enemy every time and doing part-time delivery work when I've nothing better to do. Bleh.

Maybe it's just because I've always preferred games with a strong narrative? Or perhaps I've simply gotten older in the gaming-sense?

Oh well, no matter, glad to see ye back anyway - I did keep checking my RSS feed for new stuff :)

Regards,

Yickle.

[Jeffool]

Glad to see you're still around and hope you feel inspired to blog more. (On Games journalism maybe? You're in the position to have been on every side of their opinion.)

[Game Producer]

Yeh, glad to see new post appearing on this site. Hopefully you write here more - it's always a pleasure to get some inside info from an experienced guy.

btw - for some reason that Pray link did not work for me... could be temporary, but it didn't.

Regards

[Charles E. Hardwidge]

Nice to see you're still alive, Scott. I had a gut feeling you'd take a break, if for no other reason the last few topics dug pretty deep and it takes time to process.

On the subject of next-generation consoles. I think, the Sony PS3 is the product of many ideas that were formulated over 20 years ago, with the Inmos Transputer. I'm disappointed that many commentators haven't clicked to this, or thought through the ramifications. They just seem to live from press release to press release, and aren't able to formulate an insightful opinion of their own.

I'm not persuaded the X-Box 360 will compete with the PS3 to the level you're suggesting. Not only is the PS3 a competitive platform, it's potential is wider and deeper. I'm fairly certain there's going to be a few surprises and shocks in store, if my understanding of the thinking behind its design is correct. Ken Kutagari is delivering close to what I'd design, and I know what I'd do next.

As if anyone cares…

[Brian Layman]

Boy, long time no read! Welcome back!

Your insights on the whys and wherefores of game development are always enlightening to those of us that are ever tempted to take the plunge.

[Mark Hanna]

Good to have you back Scott. In all honesty, I'm looking forward to seeing how the crowds react to Nintendos new system. You never know how the public will embrace innovation.. Psychonauts failed sales wise; while not necessarily innovative, but was different. I don't see Nintendo EVER failing in the asian territories and IF they manage to capture western society that would put them in a league of their own.. maybe even win this "next-gen" console "war".

[Evan Erwin]

Welcome back Scott, it's great to see you writing again.

[Scott Miller]

Psychonauts failed sales wise; while not necessarily innovative, but was different.

Mark, being different is a wonderful key to success, but so is being compelling. For some reason, games tagged as "adventure games" just do not seem to have a strong draw. Unfair or not, it is what is.

I'm not persuaded the X-Box 360 will compete with the PS3 to the level you're suggesting.

Charles, I still think that Microsoft is making a strategic business mistake by being in the console market. And so far, they've lost nearly a billion a year since their entry five years ago -- an amount that would bury most Fortune 500 companies. (BTW, this is not a new opinion...I wrote in my ".plan" file in 1999 that the Xbox was a business mistake and would backfire.) At issue is that MSoft is not an entertainment company, and by trying to get into this market it divides the company's management and resource focus, making them more susceptible to being hurt by competitors like Google. Meanwhile, Sony is perfectly positioned as a console company because their natural background is consumer electronics and entertainment. So, I still believe that as the console generation wars continue, Sony will prevail, despite giving MSoft hope this particular generation. But, I do think MSoft has a chance to gain ground this cycle because of the two reasons stated above, plus I think that Nintendo shot their own foot off with the Gamecube, which was positioned too much as a children's system.

Sad to see you don't recognize the sales potential of the Revolution...

Marek, it's more that I have little faith in Nintendo's management to right their ship. They need to establish a compelling image for the Revolution, and rise above the kiddie image they currently have. Mario is cool and all, but it doesn't win the older audience like GTA and Halo.

Finally, our webserver crashed last night, but it's now back up and the links should work.

[Stewart Quade]

For one you don't go on to explain your reasoning towards thinking this will be Nintendo's last console. It's kind of funny where people think Nintendo is dying and have been saying this mantra since 1996 even though in 2005 their hardware and software actually made profit, where as Microsoft lost money per console during the XBox generation, and while Sony's game divisions make money, it goes towards the other divisions within Sony which are currently bankrupt. I also don't see a company dying out which has been around since 1889, and clearly makes more than a company such as 3D realms.

As a 27 year old male, husband, father, and gamer. I highly look forward to the Nintendo Revolution. More importantly the possibilities of the control scheme with a FPS. Duke Nukem Forever...wink...wink...

Maybe Scott, or shall I call you Mr. Miller should stop waiting for Microsoft to send you a 360 dev kit, and maybe request a development kit from Nintendo? Mark Rein took up the offer to do so. Maybe you would change your opinion to where Nintendo is headed next-gen with their machine? Maybe Duke Nukem Forever would change the way we think about FPS's? Would be a hell of time using that controller, and Nintendo's wifi strategy making it easier, and more affordable for gamers to go online, would draw alot of DukeMatchers.

Or possibly not even developing a new I.P., maybe just porting old Apogee games via the Virtual Console....

But I don't want to sit here and tell you how to do your job. Which I am aware is what I'm doing. But also I'm just trying to get some points across.

Trust these words. Thinking Nintendo Revolution will be a disaster and/or Nintendo's last console, is probably a huge mistake.

[Robert Howarth]

Maybe by the time the PS3 is released, there will be actual 360s on store shelves. I dunno! I just know that I'm going to pre-order a PS3 and have it shipped to my doorstep on launch day.

[Scott]

Stewart, for the just-ending generation, I had predicted that Sony would be #1, Nintendo a strong #2, and MSoft a weak #3. I'm a Nintendo fan, but I watched as they caved in during the last cycle -- mostly due to management and marketing. I'd be surprised if they get it right with the Revolution, but I hope they do. As for the controller, I hope it rocks for FPS games, because the current generation of controllers absolutely sucks (versus a keyboard/mouse).

[Dave]

I definitely agree that everyone has a right to their own opinion but when your word effects many listeners you should put some research into your conclusions. Nintendo has always been the last in the race but you have to agree the big N has braught a lot to the gaming world. Don't under estimate them! They could grab the interest of new demographics this time and surprise us all. I guess what I'm getting at is "dont knock it till you try it."

[Greg Findlay]

One thing I think Nintendo made a mistake with for next generation is not improving their dev package. Although I haven't worked with it myself MS blows the other two systems out of the water with how much easier it is to develop for with current gen and it seems the trend is continuing. When I hear a company talking about making a multiplatform console game it's always developed for xbox first and ported to the others later. Encouraging developers to want to use their tools over others is a huge win for MS. Personally I think MS is going to make massive strides this generation simply because dev's want to work with xbox tools more then others. I think this is a huge issue because I think next gen games are going to be less and less multiplatform to try and cut budget costs in which case teams will choose to dev for xbox because they can be more efficient.

If Nintendo is smart they will sell there games for less then MS and Sony in which case I think Nintendo could could have the top seller. Up until this generation of games I would spend extra money to buy games as gifts for friends but now at $80 a pop (Canadian) I really can't afford to. This means I'll probably buy 6 or 7 less games this year then last year. I think upping the cost of games was probably the stupidest thing that could have happened for next gen and it's going to make it even harder for an average game to sell. Maybe we'll see a third price point between budget and AAA come out or maybe only high quality games will get to shelves (hahahahaha).

[Pudge]

Scott,

I can see your point, but in all honesty I think the Rev is going to be the biggest seller too. I agree with these guys ^. Most of my friends are gamers, and though hesitant to the cube at first- most of them have picked a used one up as a 2nd console, and play it far more often than their ps2s/boxs.

For this reason alone 5 of my best friends, 4 of which were diehard ps fans- will be investing in a Rev for their primary system. They like the rumored price, they love the controller idea (input devices are 50% of good gaming IMO), and the terrific (though meager) exclusive library from the cube has convinced them its the way to go. 4/5 of them also picked up a DS, and one guy had to buy another after his wife took his. We all use the free wifi service & this is going to be a big factor in our decision to buy the Rev. Xlive is cool, but free is even better.

I agree the buzz is huge for the Rev right now in the consumer market. I also trust your judgement from the developer side of things. It will be interesting to see how things unfold.

[Charles E. Hardwidge]

While the graphics have improved, the gameplay is for all intents and purposes the same, which makes it hard for a lot of consumers to justify the $400-500 price tag.

Yes, Nabil. However, some scope exists to help offset this cost, and the popular demand might penetrate a few minds and encourage the content changes I forsaw over a decade ago. Perhaps, this generation will usefully push the issue.

I still think that Microsoft is making a strategic business mistake by being in the console market.

Scott, our starting base is different but we agree on most of the conclusions, as well as having written about this several years ago. I find this more interesting than who wins what console battle.

I definitely agree that everyone has a right to their own opinion but when your word effects many listeners you should put some research into your conclusions.

Dave, I've got a slightly diferent perspective on this one. Unlike a printer driver, Scott isn't the only one with an opinion and people may not be entirely dumb, even if the game media is.

Nintendo has always been the last in the race but you have to agree the big N has braught a lot to the gaming world. Don't under estimate them!

I think, you're right to highlight Nintendo as a serious player. Their focus, for this cycle, looks like a very good decision. However, they're missing a few opportunities that could seriously weaken the other players.

...

As much as I've got my opinions about the personalities, businesses, and products, I really think the overall level of marketing and media dumbness is more important. Between shrill, stupid, and smug, nobody is being served very well. Many people, whether you're talking about developers, the media, or gamers, have skills, knowledge, and aptitudes, but we're wrapped in a haze.

Forget shiny toys, I think, we need a great leap forward in thinking - a relativity theory to replace the current newtonian theory. The current model is so successful we can't see beyond it. We're not there, yet, but the next generation consoles are laying the foundations for it to emerge. My guess is it's now a question of when, not if. Wake me up in ten years.

[halebard]

@ Greg Findlay:
Noting you claim to be an insider i ask you: Are there any tools provideed by MS that help dealing programming for multicore? Because I heard that all games out now are performed by only one of the three cores and that multicoreprogramming is individual to every part of a game and more like an experiment than logic. I thought XBOX was easy to code for because it uses x86-libraries and sports a geforce3 on agp!?! Can you explain me that a bit please(especially in-order and out-of-order)
Perhaps Scott can answer this too. :)

[et100]

Ok. I'll drop all the "I'm as smart as you so my opinion matters, too." BS first.

Let's be honest and serious about it. Xbox360 is failing already. Shortage, hardware break-downs, failed yet again in Asia region.. It's not a bad console at all, but ironically people don't think that Xbox360 is a 'next-gen' enough. They want 'rendered'-so-called-PS3-like level of visuals. Your PC will be faster than Xbox360 end of the year 2006. My PC is already rendering graphics in HD resolution.

Now with Sony, because they bluffed so much about the next-gen level, they'll have to lose so much money. Do you know how much Blu-Ray costs? $1500+ on consumer's market. PS3 will have Blu-Ray + several Cell chips + dual digital video output + surround sounds.. Even if they sell it about $500 each, that'll lose about $500 per console. If they sell 1 mil, that's $500 mil loss. If they sell 10 mil unit, that's $5 bil loss. I honestly don't think the gamers will start paying $80 per game to make up the Sony's loss. Many will rather find a way to hack and mod PS3.

Compared to that, Nintendo is in a advantageous position. Less than 25% household will have HDTV on their house by end of year 2006. Nintendo knows that. They are not going to loss so much money per console sale like PS3 because they don't have to come up with next-gen visuals. Nintendo says that they wanted an 'innovation', but I say that's only half true. They didn't want to loss lots of money with console but also had to find a way that even non-gamers would want to try their console.

I'm not saying Revolution will outsell PS3, but if you look at it, Nintendo just has more advantages. At least lot more than Xbox360.

DS outsold PSP, and GBA brand is still selling to the crowds. And you're saying that the Revolution's going to be the last console that Nintendo will make? Just because Gamecube wasn't as popular as SNES? Come on. Let's see the world as big as it is.

Oh BTW, I really enjoyed the last Duke Nukem that you guys came up with. It ran perfectly on my Pentium 2 machine that threw away about 3 years ago. I just wish that the Duke Nukem Foever won't take another 10 years to develope. Hey, maybe it was the perfect title; it takes forever to develope, eh?

[Freak]

Hello. I think the REvolution has the potential to sneak into the lead in the race.

First of all, it's low pricepoint will make it affordable to all.

Second, the controller is something that even naysayers will want to try out.

Third, who doesn't want to have old Nintendo games at their finger tips?

Fourth, there's still a secret concerning the Revolution.

Fifth, it may be the best looking console out there and also probably the smallest and quietest console.

Sixth, Nintendo will focus in on bringing in casual and nongamers. Some of their software will appeal to those outside the late teen early twenty male demographic. See Nintendogs and Brain Training.

Seventh, no need for an hdtv. ONe thing you're not paying for with the Rev is more horsepower than you will use.

Eighth, it's going to be easy to develop for. Development can be started on the 'Cube as the APIs are compatible. IT's also the only console with the same gpu and cpu manufacturer as the previous generation and the only one that doesn't introduce multicore into the equation.

Ninth, Nintendo wants to sell more Revolutions than Cubes and I can't for one fathom them not doing so. There's just too many 'extras' and new features the 'Cube lacked that the Revolution has.

Tenth, it has built in Wi-Fi out of the box and Flash Memory card.

Eleventh, online play will be free.

Twelfth, the Revolution has one of the biggest publishers of videogames exclusively supporting it aka Nintendo themselves.

[StarX]

I guess you could qualify that as anecdotic, but I've never read so many comments on forums and blogs from people saying something like: "This Nintendo Revolution is bringing me back to Nintendo/video-games, I stopped buying Nintendo consoles (or consoles in general) a few years ago and the Revolution got me interested again." I've never seen these kind of comments on any other Nintendo consoles, even the DS.

Greg: Nintendo is improving its devkits for the Rev, they don't have to rewrite it because they were already using the best console CPU, the PowerPC. The only reason Sony and MS had to build completely new devkits is that their older platform was relatively crappy and they had to switch to a new one, if only because of the processor change. Nintendo already had a clean modular devkit that can be easily expanded to accommodate new hardware features. There has been no fundamental invention in the world of 3d gaming since many years that would require a complete rewrite.

Anyone that programmed for the PS2, XBOX and GameCube knows that the GC was the best devkit. Sony and MS now just moved to that kind of cleaner hardware and software architecture Nintendo already had.

Why should Nintendo be blamed for not fixing what wasn't broken?

The lack of games on the GC didn't come from a bad devkits (no GC developer ever publicly complained about the GC devkits). Many other factors accounted for that, like the lack differentiation with competitors. Most people having GC's had PS2's and XBOXes, so there was no reason to make GC games, since it would have brought much the same experience.

In this round, whatever happens, Nintendo won't be 3rd, because they won't be in the same market as MS and Sony, plain and simple.

[Charles E. Hardwidge]

I think, the final reckoning will be Sony, Nintendo, and Microsoft in third, with Microsoft exiting the race at the turn of the next generation. Things might pan out differently, but that's what I expect to see.

Really, I'm not too hung up about it. The way I see it is wheels within wheels, and all anyone can do is their best. On my super-secret blog that nobody reads, I skipped the whole thing by. Not interested.

Ultimately, I don't think consoles matter.

[Mars Barrow]

Just wanted to add my two cents in here:

I agree with what many are saying. I do not foresee Nintendo bowing out of the console race any time soon as they are still profitable and ready to expand the market even more than the DS already has. They're not worried about coming in first or second (for systems sold) as that is often times not the best way to "rank" how a system is doing. You have to have much more than a lot of systems sold to be successful (i.e. profit, buzz, innovation, developer support)... and Nintendo is gaining more and more momentum every day. Just look at Joystiq's most recent poll ("http://www.joystiq.com/2006/01/23/poll-results-next-gen-combo-platters/") where 'Revolution' took over 80% projected infiltration.

I work part time for a major retailer and have heard nothing but positive words surrounding the Revolution, and this is coming before Nintendo is even saying much about the system or the games. I'd imagine after you try it, you won't be knocking it, but you'll be joining millions of others in some of the most interesting and fun gaming experiences of your life.

[E-phonk]

I also firmly believe nintendo, under the new CEO Iwata, will do a lot better then previous gen. The gamecube didn't differentiate enough, the only thing it had to offer was it's price and the exclusive nintendo titels - but they lacked 3rd party support (even from japan) and didn't have anything special going for them, except having better graphics then PS2 but that didn't help them much.

I completely understand why nintendo wants to go a different route, and it's strange you don't delve a bit deeper into this Scott, since it is a pure marketing/management decision.
Nintendo can't just release "yet another" console like the competition with focus on graphics and nothing new to offer, because it hurts them on two sides - not only do they have to fight the powerful playstation brand and the endless moneypit nintendo throws at them, but they would also have to develop games for this console (their strong point) and invest a lot more in developing HD graphics to compete with the offerings of Sony/Square etc..
Instead they positioned themselves different, with "good" graphic power but most important with something the competition can't offer: a unique experience due to the controller. On top of that they also use their complete back-catalogue as a (imo) powerful way to attract older, nostalgic gamers.
They allready proved that they can expand the gaming market who keeps being focussed more and more to the hard-core gaming crowd, and their DS system is breaking records in Japan.

What is also kind of important for this next gen, is the software lineup. The current drought on the gamecube shows that nintendo is working very hard to get an excellent and complete softwarelineup ready, and i'm sure it'll be a mix of their biggest franchises (including the "new" succesful franchises from the DS) and some complete new offerings.

[Game Producer]

"Charles, I still think that Microsoft is making a strategic business mistake by being in the console market. And so far, they've lost nearly a billion a year since their entry five years ago"

@Scott: I wouldn't say so. Microsoft is doing good deals by getting casual game into Xbox live. It's a huge market - and MS is getting serious money from there.